The first month of 2009 is almost over, and I thought it was time to take a look at the year ahead, and the possible futures of the manga publishers currently doing releases. Before people get their knickers in a twist over my thoughts, remember that they are just that my thoughts. Keep it civil!!

Also, this list only covers publishers I’ve known for a while, so it’s far from complete.

Tokyopop UK

Tokyopop UK is all but dead, their slow releases were reduced a a further 20% in the restructuring late last year, and since then they’ve laid off a lot of staff and reduced releases even further. It’s expected that they’ll be less than half of their  releases compared with 2008. However given they fact they’ve pulled out of all their scheduled events, and are no longer answering emails from stores for updated release schedules, speculation is that around late Q2 of 2009 Tokyopop UK will be closed down.

The question is, will it be that big of an impact on the UK market? I doubt it. The vast majority of stores were already getting titles from American imports, so only those stores that have contracts with Tokyopop will really be affected (such as Waterstones). However they they have already begun to move over to American imports already. As a result it’s unlikely to have any major effect on fandom.

Tokyopop US

This is where Tokyopop is going to hurt. With their restructuring and company split last year, hopes flared briefly of a revived company. However, after a brief rise, they started to flag again. Tokyopop cut titles across the board, some of them were surprising in that they had a solid fan base, and had been running for several years. Others were surprising because they were cancelled when they only had a volume or two remaining to be released, and others cancelled after barely a second or third volume release. The criteria used for cancelling a series seems to arbitrary with no real basis, and they don’t seem to want to explain to fans.

Sadly Tokyopop seem to be backsliding into their old Mixx days, which is a shame since they had been improving at one point. However they shot themselves in the foot over the way they treated fans of their Light Novel line up. Rather than allowing a series a chance to get off the ground, they killed it right away. As a result fans are slow to pick up new titles for fear the same will happen again, in essence they don’t want to waste their money.

Now with their downturn, they’re doing the same to their manga line up, and alienating more fans.

As a result I don’t see Tokyopop lasting out the year in it’s current form. If I’m honest I see them going under, but most likely selling off a vast chunk of their titles and surviving as a small scale publisher.  This could be a good thing, allowing them to start over from scratch.

ADV Manga

I think the only people who genuinely believe that ADV Manga will revive are ADV themselves. Most fans however I think are probably thinking the same as me, ADV Manga is dead. This year will probably confirm it, with ADV selling off the last few titles it’s guarded vehemently (Yotsuba&, Ray to name a few). The money would be used to support ADV Anime, but I’m not sure ADV can survive at all, especially since they’re selling off more and more of their series to others.

Viz Manga

Viz is probably one of a few publishers that could make it through 2009 relatively untouched. Primarily due to it’s size and diversity. While I’m no fan of the way they handle their shonen titles (I still can’t understand why some people consider them HQ publishers), the vast number of shonen releases is enough to carry the company. Especially when they have titles such as Bleach and Naruto in their portfolio. So long as they have high profile series like this they’ll survive. When you factor in their shojo line up as well, there’s even more room for them to breath. While manga is a luxury item, Viz have a monopoly on high profile titles across both the shonen and shojo line up. These titles will carry the company through the hard times as fans will always find money to buy their favorite series.

Infinity Studios

Infinity seems to have been the first publisher of manga to actually have folded, though like ADV they seem to be having a hard time admitting it.

I sadly found Infinity late, they are the only company that puts out a true high quality release. All of their release are done in high quality white paper, have full dust jackets, and a good feel to them. Sadly this high quality is probably what’s killing them. High production costs, and a slow uptake, means that they’re initial costs are over the top.

When they ran out of cash for book publishing, they decided on eBook format. However the costing of the eBooks is expensive, especially when you add in the shipping costs. Yup, for some reason they mail the eBooks to people rather than having them as digital downloads.

While they do have some exceptional titles on their books, I don’t see them lasting the year, however I don’t see them disappearing. Rather I see them either merging with another publisher, or being bought out.

Seven Seas Entertainment

SSE is dead, they died back in 2007 and have been in their death throws ever since. Their Light Novel line up was killed before it got started, and their strawberry line up (the yuri titles) were killed as well.

This tied in with other factors such as the way they lied to fans, mislead them over releases, and ultimately broke promises, means the fandom doesn’t trust them very much. As a result the current form of SSE can not survive. The only way I can see this company reviving is if a new management takes over, with a big wad of cash, and gets the company fully up and running and releasing titles. However that’s a pipe dream, and I see SSE failing by the end of the year, or pulling out of the manga market all together and moving to books in general ( a move they’ve already been trying to do).

This will be a shame, since to be honest, despite my feelings towards the management of SSE, they do put out a quality release. It’s just a shame they didn’t have what it takes on the management and customer relations side of the things.

Digital Manga Publishing (DMP)

I’m not really sure about DMP truthfully. On the one hand I can see them failing due to poor sales, as their titles are mostly like Infinity’s, of a relatively high quality, but also over priced when compared with normal releases. However on the other hand they do have two things going for them, firstly they’re tied to Dark Horse, and secondly they publish the Vampire Hunter D novels.

VampD is strong enough to carry the company on it’s own in theory, given it’s world wide sales, it does better than many novels do. Added in this the manga is doing very well, and a new anime series and live action are planned, the possibility exists that VampD can become DMP’s Bleach and Naruto.

They also carry several popular titles as well, such as Enchanter, Fafner in the Azure, Princess Princess and Speed Racer.

The question is really how well this can be carried on into the future, and I can easily see it going both ways. Truthfully this is one of the few companies I’m watching with interest.

Del Rey

Like DMP Del Rey have a powerhouse behind them, so like Viz I can see them weathering the year well. However they also have an extremely good line up of titles. While individually these titles aren’t as popular as say Bleach or Naruto, when taken together they are more than adequate to carry the company. Especially when you look at the leaps and bounds they’ve made as a company.

Yen Press

Like Del Rey Yen have a huge powerhouse behind them, they also have a small catalogue (compared with other publishers). This means they have an advantage in that they can solidly expand their portfolio. Their anthology release means that fans get to sample a series before actually having to buy the volume. This does mean there’s a possibility of lower initial sales, however there would be higher and more consistent sales across the series.

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